WMO warns of contrasting El Niño hazards around the southwest Indian Ocean

A regional outlook with contrasting hazards

The World Meteorological Organization published a southwest Indian Ocean seasonal outlook on October 1 covering October–December 2026 and January–March 2027. It says the region faces different hazards rather than a single uniform El Niño outcome.

According to the outlook, southern areas face heightened drought, water-stress and food-security risks, while northern and wetter areas should prepare for flooding and landslides. It also anticipates above-normal regional temperatures.

The WMO says below-normal cyclone activity across the basin would not remove local cyclone risk. The agency’s account draws on a regional climate forum held in Seychelles in September.

El Niño’s broader seasonal outlook

Reuters reported on September 3 that WMO forecasts pointed to El Niño persisting into February 2027. That earlier reporting corroborates the broader background; it is not a separate verification of each location-specific October forecast.

Local disaster timing cannot be inferred

Seasonal outlooks describe expected tendencies and risks. They do not establish the date, location or severity of an individual flood, drought or cyclone. Local outcomes can differ within the same region, so the basin-wide signal should not be treated as a forecast for every community.

Planning for different local risks — analysis

The contrast between dry and wet risks makes a uniform regional response inadequate. Water planning, agriculture and disaster preparation need to account for local conditions and updated forecasts. The value of the outlook is advance preparation under uncertainty, not a claim that a particular disaster has already occurred.